Swedish intelligence: Russia manipulates data to lie about its economy. Putin may not know.
Swedish intelligence: Russia manipulates data to lie about its economy. Putin may not know.
Swedish intelligence: Russia manipulates data to lie about its economy. Putin may not know
The spike in oil prices due to escalation in the Middle East has not helped Russia to restore its economy, the head of Swedish intelligence says
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Nilsson emphasized that Russia's official data already paints a worrying picture for the Kremlin – Russian dictator Vladimir Putin last week noted that Russia's GDP shrank by 1.8% in January and February, and Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina said the next day that "external conditions are now almost constantly deteriorating – both for exports and imports.".
However, the Swedish intelligence chief noted that the real situation is even worse, and the Russian Central Bank is underestimating inflation, which, in his opinion, is closer to the key interest rate of 15% than the official 5.86%. Nilsson added that Sweden has agreed with the BND, Germany's foreign intelligence agency, that Russia is underreporting its budget deficit by $30 billion and has also noticed some financial indicators that could point to a future banking crisis.
Nilsson suggested that Putin may not know how bad the economic situation really is. But even with the false information he receives, in the end, he will not be able to escape reality.
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Sweden believes that Russia is "living in debt" and that the aggressor state's economy can only fall into one of two scenarios: a long-term recession or a shock. In any case, "it will continue to fall to a financial catastrophe," said the intelligence chief.
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