You are absolutely right that a single poll, especially one commissioned by an advocacy group, should not be treated as definitive. That is why I did not base my argument solely on the March 2025 poll. It is part of a broader pattern that has emerged across multiple public polls over the past few years. YouGov, Redfield & Wilton and Omnisis, for example, have all shown support for independence gradually increasing, particularly among younger voters. The private poll simply highlights and reinforces that existing trend.

I also agree that we need more consistent data to fully establish whether pro-independence views are retained as voters age. However, the evidence we do have suggests that this is happening. Those who were in favour at 25 still tend to be in favour at 35. While that trend needs more time to be confirmed definitively, it is already significant enough to warrant attention, at least in my opinion.

The main point here is not that independence is guaranteed or inevitable, but that the Welsh Lib Dems have traditionally relied on younger voters, and younger voters are consistently more likely to support independence than older ones. Ignoring that shift may not matter today, but it is a strategic risk in the longer term.

And just to add, I fully agree with your final point. Independence should only happen if it has clear and sustained support within Wales. That is the only democratic basis on which it could, or perhaps even should, proceed.

1y ago

[Opinion] Too Little, Too Unionist

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Navarian @lemm.ee 1y ago

I welcome disagreement, but it helps if it engages with what I actually wrote.

You are right that private polls should be treated with caution. I did not spell out those limitations clearly enough in the article, and I take that point. But even putting the YesCymru poll to one side, the very data you have shared backs up the trend I am highlighting. In 2014, support for independence was around 12 percent. Now it is at 35 percent, or 41 percent if you exclude “don’t knows”. That is a clear and sustained increase over the past decade.

On youth support, the figures you show are from 2023 and are already outdated. More recent polling consistently shows that support for independence among younger voters is considerably higher than among the general population, often by a large margin, for example 72% in the most recent poll if “don’t knows” are excluded.

The Welsh Lib Dems do not 'need' to adopt a pro-independence stance, but ignoring a steadily growing shift in public opinion, especially among the voter base they have traditionally relied on, is politically short-sighted. Recognising this is not wishful thinking, it is basic strategic awareness.

1y ago

[Opinion] Too Little, Too Unionist

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Navarian @lemm.ee 1y ago

You seem to miss the irony of claiming that I ignored your links, when the very piece you're commenting under contains links substantiating the claims I've made here to you in the comments.

I suppose you make a little more sense to me now that I know you haven't actually read the article.

1y ago

[Opinion] Too Little, Too Unionist

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Navarian @lemm.ee 1y ago

I'm unsure how much you know about demographics in Wales, so I'll explain some to you now.

Independence on the whole is currently polling about 41% in favour, that's the entire electorate. When you instead look at 16-34 Year Olds, that support jumps to over 70%, it's also become clear that as this group continues aging, their independence support isn't wavering.

Historically, The Welsh Lib Dems have garnered most of their electoral support from the 16-34 block of voters. In shitting on one of the biggest issues that over 70% of their base care about, they're shooting themselves in the foot massively.

1y ago

Israel will not stop war until Palestinians displaced from Gaza and Syria partitioned, minister says

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Navarian @lemm.ee 1y ago

How can you see this genocide unfolding, ethnic cleansing at a minimum of you're scared if using the G word, and still say "Well, I don't really want to take a side here"

This kind of rhetoric enables these war crimes. You've outlined yourself what Israel is doing, and they're going to continue because the western governments aren't doing anything real about it.

The least we can do as individuals is call them out on their bullshit and remind others around us that the genocide they're committing is entirely fucked up and unjustifiable.

UK Politics @feddit.uk

Navarian @lemm.ee

1y ago

Opinion

Too Little, Too Unionist

farrellperks.substack.com /p/too-little-too-unionist

Wales (Cymru) @lemm.ee

Navarian @lemm.ee

1y ago

Too Little, Too Unionist

farrellperks.substack.com /p/too-little-too-unionist

Wales (Cymru) @lemm.ee

Navarian @lemm.ee

1y ago

Jane Dodds thinks Welsh independence would make Brexit look like ‘walk in the park’

nation.cymru /news/welsh-independence-would-make-brexit-look-like-walk-in-the-park-lib-dem/

1y ago

Plaid Cymru leader calls for Port Talbot investment after British Steel deal

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Navarian @lemm.ee 1y ago

I see, forgive my earlier ignorance then, appreciate the teaching moment.

I suppose my point about earlier calls for help by Plaid is still true though, fuck knows what Labour and the Tories were playing at.

1y ago

Plaid Cymru leader calls for Port Talbot investment after British Steel deal

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Navarian @lemm.ee 1y ago

It's my understanding that all three furnaces are decommissioned at Port Talbot - I imagine it's cheaper/more economical to recommission existing furnaces than it is to start from scratch.

Government funding could do exactly that, though given they left it to close down in the first place when they had a chance to save it, I doubt they'll heed Plaid's call here sadly.

Wales (Cymru) @lemm.ee

Navarian @lemm.ee

1y ago

Plaid Cymru leader calls for Port Talbot investment after British Steel deal

nation.cymru /news/plaid-cymru-leader-calls-for-port-talbot-investment-after-british-steel-deal/

1y ago

Permanently Deleted

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Navarian @lemm.ee 1y ago

We should just be doing the same with Israeli headlines "Genocidal warmongers claim X"

1y ago

Why Trump is struggling to secure fast ceasefire in Ukraine

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Navarian @lemm.ee 1y ago

It should come as a surprise to nobody that a complete unwillingness to have something come to an end is quite a barrier to said thing coming to an end.

That mixed with incompetence, even if he wanted the cash cow that is the illegal invasion of Ukraine to end, he's not intelligent enough to navigate that.

1y ago

How much does Internet (both home and mobile) cost in your European country?

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Navarian @lemm.ee 1y ago

1Gb down 200Mb up - £39.99/month in Wales.

1y ago

Looks like I found "blue MAGA"

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Navarian @lemm.ee 1y ago

"So it turns out veering gradually to the right just isn't working for us, it's probably the 'far left's' fault"

I knew as a European that the US only had two right wing parties, with the democratic party sitting firmly to the right of most of our centrist parties here, but this is just fucking stupid.

1y ago

British Netflix users could be forced to pay licence fee

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Navarian @lemm.ee 1y ago

They also actively ignore those 'No licence needed' declarations, I've submitted three, two online and one by mail and they still routinely threaten to show up on my doorstep 'any day now'